A PATHWAY TO SUSTAINED ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPMENT IN GERMANY? – ANALYZING AMBITIOUS LEGISLATION THROUGH A POLYCENTRIC GOVERNANCE LENS

Sammanfattning

The German energy transition, i.e the phase-out of conventional power generation and the deployment of renewable energies, is one of the principal challenges the country is facing. Onshore wind power is arguably the most prevalent renewable energy technology in Germany, meaning its continued deployment is vital to achieve the energy transition. Deployment has fluctuated widely year-to-year, most recently experiencing a slump in the late 2010s. Two changes of government later, 2025 is projected to become a record year for permitted capacity of onshore WTGs. This thesis examines the changes of onshore wind power governance enacted by the traffic-light coalition, which formed the German federal government from December 2021 to March 2025, in an effort to find the reasons for the increase in permitting numbers. The polycentric governance lens is employed for the analysis and a mixed methods approach, consisting of a semi-quantitative analysis of the changes to governance and a qualitative analysis supported by expert interviews, is utilised. The analysis points to the most effective measures being the setting of binding area targets to be designated for wind energy, digitisation of permitting processes and the exemption of EIAs for projects in designated wind energy areas. Federal guidance is identified to be important for effective onshore wind power governance, as it can encourage lower levels of governance to act in line with this guidance. However, state-to-state differences remain in the adherence and implementation of federal goals. Interviewees assessed the prioritisation of onshore wind power by the traffic-light coalition as unparallelled and expect subsequent federal governments to focus less on the topic, e.g. evident in the now-incumbent government’s announced re-evaluation of area targets. Nevertheless, interviewees remain confident in continuous onshore wind power deployment, based on EU targets and the exhaustive changes enacted by the traffic-light coalition.