Addiction to the Russian Tap : A Quantitative Study of How Dependence on Russian Oil and Gas Affects Citizens’ Attitudes towards EU Sanctions

Sammanfattning

In this study, I examine whether there is a connection between countries’ degree of dependence on Russian oil and gas and citizens’ attitudes towards EU sanctions targeting Russia. Based on a cost-based theoretical argument, the main hypothesis is that individuals living in countries with higher levels of energy dependence are less likely to support sanctions, as energy dependence creates economic vulnerability that makes citizens more responsive to the costs sanctions can entail. By combining country-level energy data from Eurostat for 2022 and 2024 with individual-level survey data from Eurobarometer, I use multilevel regression models to assess the relationship between energy dependence and sanctions support. The results suggest limited support for the main hypothesis, as the relationship between energy dependence and sanctions support is consistently negative across all models, but only statistically significant at the 10 per cent level at most. In addition, I examine heterogeneous effects such as social class, community size, ideology and EU trust using interaction modelling. From these analyses, I find more substantial results, suggesting that individuals living in rural areas and those not tending to trust the EU are more sensitive to energy dependence in forming their attitudes. The results regarding social class and ideology are more ambiguous. Overall, with this study, I aim to contribute to an underexplored area at the crossroads of energy dependence, public opinion and sanctions research in an EU context.