Between Growth and Adaptation - Municipal Planning in Västra Götaland in Times of Demographic Shrinkage.

Sammanfattning

Demographic shrinkage is a tangible and complex challenge for many municipalities today, often related to low birth rates, high out-migration and an aging population. This creates unwanted consequences such as decreased tax revenues and labour supply, making it important for shrinking municipalities to address and manage this decline. This thesis explores how municipalities experiencing long-term population decline in the Västra Götaland region navigate demographic shrinkage in policy and planning. Although the region as a whole is expected to grow, several municipalities face long-term population decline, creating tensions between regional growth ambitions and local demographic realities.The aim of this thesis is to examine how municipalities experiencing long-term population decline in the Västra Götaland region experience and navigate this demographic shrinkage, in relation to activities oriented towards growth and adaptation. Furthermore, the aim is also to investigate how shrinking municipalities interpret the Regional Development Strategy of Västra Götaland. This is explored through a qualitative multiple methods approach, combining a document study of eight municipal comprehensive plans and the Regional Development Strategy of Västra Götaland with semi-structured interviews with municipal and subregional actors. The empirical material is analysed through the concepts of Growth and Adaptation, particularly Syssner’s (2018;2020) distinction between Plan A, growth-oriented policies, and Plan B, adaptation-oriented policies.The findings reveal that population decline is experienced as a structural challenge linked to ageing populations, out-migration, reduced tax revenues, labour shortages and difficulties in maintaining welfare services. Aiming for economic and population growth was found to be the dominant policy response to handle shrinkage, expressed through activities related to attractive housing, business development and tourism. However, adaptation measures are also visible, especially through the interview results. Adaptive activities primarily took the form of budget adjustments, controlled physical development and inter-municipal cooperation. The thesis concludes that shrinking municipalities navigate demographic decline through a combination of Plan A and Plan B, where growth-oriented activities are more prominent as long-term strategies while adaptation-oriented activities are more commonly reactive. Concerning the Regional Development Strategy, the dominant focus is on regional growth, while the relationship between regional and local ambitions was found to be complex.