BETWEEN HAWKS OR DOVES? Energy Dependence and National Positions on EU Sanctions Against Russia: A Qualitative Study of Sweden and Germany

Sammanfattning

The debate about whether sanctions are effective or not is relevant as it’s among the most widely used means in conflict management. The sanctions that were imposed against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 were more comprehensive compared to previous sanctions. Sanctions involve financial cost on the target but also on the sanctioning countries, which can entail diversity among the sanctioning actors. And thus, affect the ability to impose sanctions, and to what extent. This study analyzes the factors that influence member states to adopt different attitudes towards sanctions by using a Most Similar Systems Design. Hence, a comparative analysis between Germany and Sweden. The empirical evidence showed that Germany was taking an initial cautious stance, which can be contrasted with its previous more moderate position. Economic costs, diplomatic ties and trade relations was behind this stance. Sweden showed a firm stance and advocated for comprehensive and strict sanctions. The evidence indicated that direct energy dependence on Russia may be an explanatory factor for a more cautious stance due to domestic costs and the difficulty of managing its consequences. This study also showed an example where interdependence between states can give rise to instability and obstacles to international crisis management within the European Union.