BEYOND THE ROOM: PUBLIC RESPONSES TO DELIBERATIVE MINI-PUBLICS IN CLIMATE POLICY - A Survey Experiment on Policy Acceptability Among the Non-participating Public in Sweden

Sammanfattning

Deliberative Mini-Publics (DMPs) have been proposed as a democratic innovation tocounteract declining voter turnout, growing polarization in public discourse, and waning trustin political institutions, particularly in complex policy areas like climate change. While DMPsare often praised for their internal benefits to participants, little is known about their externalimpact on non-participants. This study addresses this gap by investigating whether, how, andamong which parts of the population DMP involvement in policy-making affects policyacceptability among the broader public. A randomized survey experiment (N=345) wasconducted in Sweden, comparing public reactions to a carbon tax policy either framed asstemming from a DMP or through the standard Swedish parliamentary process. The experimentused a 2x1 between-subjects factorial design, with additional analysis of potential mediationby perceived procedural fairness and moderation by education, political trust, and politicalideology. Results showed no significant difference in policy acceptability between the twogroups, rejecting the hypothesis of a positive spillover effect. This result appears to stem fromtwo opposing effects: a decrease in perceived procedural fairness - especially among moreeducated, right-leaning individuals and those with higher trust in political parties - and apositive direct effect on policy acceptability. Further, no evidence indicated that education,political trust, and political ideology moderated the overall effect on policy acceptability. Thestudy contributes with several insights for scholars and policymakers. It challenges theassumption that DMPs positively influence public attitudes, and highlights that their effects aremore nuanced than what existing research often assumes.