CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS FOR WIND POWER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE A study of the exposure to ice prone conditions and changing wind speeds in nine Swedish municipalities

Sammanfattning

Physical climate risks have previously been identified as challenging for windpower and its production; a sector that is becoming increasingly important in thegreen energy transition to mitigate climate change and manage its consequences.Thus, wind power infrastructure needs to be climate resilient to meet theincreasing energy demand in a changing climate. This study uses observationalclimate data from 1991-2020 to examine the current exposure to ice proneconditions and wind speeds in nine strategically selected municipalities. Toexamine how the exposure to these hazards might change in the future, the climatemodel EC-Earth3 was used to calculate change factors from the historicalbaseline (1991-2014) to the future period (2071-2100) under the high-emissionsscenario SSP5-8.5. The results show a clear geographical trend in how northernand southern municipalities are exposed to ice prone conditions and changingwind speeds. Average and maximum wind speed are generally expected to remainunchanged or decrease. Ice prone conditions are estimated to increase in thenorthernmost municipalities, while southern municipalities appear less affected,both today and in the future. However, uncertainties in climate models mean thatthe results should be interpreted with caution. Hence, it is evident that climaterisk assessments are becoming increasingly important in a changing climate toensure that activities such as wind power are climate resilient for the future.