Comparative Analysis of Hydrodynamic Models to Simulate Petroleum Spills in Lake Mälaren

Sammanfattning

This master’s thesis presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of three hydrodynamic lake models Mälarmodellen (DHI), Seatrack Web, and the IVL model to simulate petroleum spills in Lake Mälaren. The study aims to identify the most suitable model for Norrvatten, the primary drinking water supplier for North Stockholm, which relies on Lake Mälaren for its water supply. While this thesis was conducted in collaboration with Norrvatten, the researcher independently performed the analysis of the oil spill simulation models. Specialists from Stockholm Vatten och Avfall and Norrvatten ensured the models' suitability by selecting criteria elements and sub-elements based on their priorities, and they provided valuable background information and feedback on the context of the study. However, the researcher independently conducted the model analysis to ensure the integrity and originality of the work. By evaluating the models based on accuracy, reliability, and ease of use, the research seeks to enhance preparedness and response for potential petroleum spills. Key objectives include conducting tests where each model is applied to various hypothetical spill scenarios, such as small-scale fuel leaks from recreational boats and large-scale oil spills from commercial tankers, to evaluate their effectiveness in predicting and managing these events. The study also assesses factors such as computational efficiency and the ease of use of each model for operators and practitioners, including the simplicity of the interface and the level of expertise required to operate it. The findings contribute to safeguarding public health and the environment by improving spill response mechanisms and ensuring the protection of water resources in the Lake Mälaren region. The results indicate significant variations in model performance, highlighting the importance of local conditions and specific requirements in model selection. Notably, the study underscores Regularly checking and updating the models to address any data gaps and uncertainties that may arise. This ongoing process helps improve the accuracy and reliability of spill predictions and response strategies.