Decarbonization Strategy for an Italian District Heating Network : A techno-economical analysis for different regulatory scenarios

Sammanfattning

Past research and real-world applications have demonstrated the potential of District Heating Systems (DHS) to reduce emissions in the heating sector when renewable sources and waste heat are integrated, highlighting their role as important contributors to climate change mitigation efforts. However, while district heating decarbonization has been widely studied from a technical perspective and numerous studies assess resource availability and economic viability, limited attention has been given to critically evaluating which methodologies should be used to calculate environmental indicators for DHS, why different approaches yield divergent results, and how these differences affect environmental and economic assessments. Moreover, few studies propose structured methods to test decarbonization strategies under regulatory uncertainty, despite the long-term and regulation-dependent nature of district heating investments. This study develops and applies a methodological framework to support district heating companies in decarbonization decision-making while providing regulators with insight into the methodological and regulatory barriers that constrain investment feasibility. Applied to an Italian district heating operator, the framework clarifies how environmental indicator calculation methods and regulatory uncertainty influence the feasibility of decarbonization strategies. By enabling a consistent and uncertainty-aware comparison of alternative decarbonization strategies, the methodology shows that, under the current regulatory environment, feasible decarbonization pathways rely primarily on efficiency improvements rather than renewable energy. This demonstrates that methodological choices and regulatory frameworks, such as standards, guidelines, and support mechanisms, directly shape the viability of renewable-based solutions and highlights the need for further research and potential regulatory adjustments to better allow DHS to play a role in the energy transition objectives.