Decision-Making under Political Uncertainty: A Qualitative Study of Strategic Expansion on Entrepreneurial Ventures

Sammanfattning

This study explored how entrepreneurial decision-makers interpret political uncertainty and how such uncertainty influences foreign market entry decisions. While prior research has demonstrated that political uncertainty affects firms’ investment behaviour and international activities, existing literature has primarily focused on large multinational enterprises and macro-level indicators of uncertainty, providing limited insight into how entrepreneurial decision-makers themselves perceive and navigate politically uncertain environments. Furthermore, existing studies often emphasize observable outcomes rather than the underlying decision-making processes through which foreign market entry decisions unfold. To address these gaps, the study adopted a qualitative research design based on semi-structured interviews with nine founders, co-founders, and senior executives operating within entrepreneurial ventures and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) engaged in international activities. The empirical data were analysed using thematic analysis following Braun and Clarke’s (2006) approach. The findings revealed that political uncertainty is interpreted subjectively and contextually, shaped by prior experience, industry characteristics, and institutional familiarity. The study further demonstrated that familiarity, trust, and professional networks play an important role in reducing perceived uncertainty during foreign market entry evaluations. In addition, entrepreneurial ventures were found to approach international expansion through gradual, adaptive, and staged processes rather than through aggressive or highly committed expansion strategies. Finally, the findings highlighted that flexibility, resilience, and strategic adaptability constitute central entrepreneurial responses to political uncertainty. The study contributes to entrepreneurship and internationalization literature by providing a deeper understanding of how entrepreneurial decision-makers interpret and manage political uncertainty during foreign market entry decisions. It also demonstrates the value of qualitative research for exploring decision-making processes in uncertain international environments.