Did Türkiye’s 2024 Export Ban on Israel Increase Third-Country Trade? Evidence from Key Manufacturing Sectors

Sammanfattning

Trade diversion and third-country effects of export restrictions are important themes in international economics research. The purpose of this study was to examine whether Türkiye’s 2024 export ban on Israel led to trade diversion toward geographically proximate countries, and whether such effects differed across sectors. The study was based on the gravity model of trade and a difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology was followed, using monthly UN Comtrade export data from January 2023 to November 2025 across four sectors: iron and steel, plastics, electrical machinery, and vehicles. The findings show that trade diversion patterns varied across sectors, with some sectors displaying greater short-run flexibility than others. Organisations and policymakers can use these findings to better understand the unintended regional trade consequences of politically motivated export restrictions.