Geospatial Optimisation Methods for Mini-grid Distribution Networks : MSc Sustainable Energy Engineering (SEE)

Sammanfattning

In 2019, 770 million people worldwide lived without electricity. As many as 490 million people could be electrified with 210,000 mini-grids by 2030. Obtaining information for decision-making is crucial to determine the viability of such a project. Currently, it is a major challenge for mini-grid developers to gather this information at the speed and scale necessary to make effective investment choices. Village Data Analytics (VIDA) is a decision-making tool used for mini-grid project planning and site selection. This paper presents a method to estimate the cost of a mini-grid distribution network on a site-by-site basis. This method can estimate the total demand, potential connections, distribution infrastructure components and corresponding costs for each site. The model can make predictions for 50 sites within two hours so the tool is especially useful for preliminary estimates in the planning phase. A more detailed study of the individual sites is recommended. Comparison with a benchmark has shown that on-site conditions often reveal activities that can only be captured by a survey. However, collecting on-site data is time-consuming and costly. Therefore, GIS and modelling tools can serve as a good approximation of the on-ground reality and are relevant to accelerate planning and support timely decision-making.