Hur förändringar i ränteläget påverkar transaktionsvolymer och finansieringsstrategier på den svenska kommersiella fastighetsmarknaden

Sammanfattning

How changes in interest rate levels affect transaction volumes, and financing strategies in the Swedish commercial real estate market The Swedish commercial real estate market underwent significant structural change between 2008 and 2025. A period that comprised the aftermath of the global financial crisis, an extended low interest rate environment and the rapid increase in the policy rate during 2022–2023. The aim of this thesis is to analyse how changes in the policy rate set by Sveriges Riksbank have co-varied with transaction volumes, capital structures and long-term financing strategies in the Swedish commercial real estate market over this period. The study employs a sequential explanatory mixed methods approach. The quantitative analysis is based on secondary financial data from nine listed real estate companies, covering loan-to-value ratios, equity ratios, interest coverage ratios, the composition of debt between bank loans and bonds, and operating cash flow. The qualitative component consists of eight semi-structured interviews with banks, funds and real estate companies, conducted to capture the strategic and qualitative reasoning that the financial figures alone cannot reveal. The findings indicate that the relationship between the policy rate and transaction volumes is real but not mechanical. The interest rate functions as one factor among several, its effect is mediated through the cost and availability of capital, valuation dynamics and the expectations of market participants. Capital structures have shifted from primarily optimising the cost of capital to functioning as a buffer against financial stress, and financing strategies have moved from a growth-oriented to a resilience-oriented logic. The results are consistent with both pecking order-theory and trade-off-theory, while also indicating that institutional and regulatory factors play a complementary role that traditional capital structure theory does not fully capture.