Kryptovalutor som diversifiering under kriser : En empirisk studie av Bitcoin, Ethereum och Ripple i relation till den svenska aktiemarknaden 2018–2024

Sammanfattning

This thesis examines whether cryptocurrencies can function as diversification or risk-reducing assets relative to the Swedish equity market during periods of financial stress. Using daily data for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple from 2018 to 2024, their dynamic relationship with the OMX30 index is analyzed. To provide a broader benchmark, gold, the German DAX index, and the U.S. S&P 500 index are included as comparison assets. Periods of financial stress are identified as episodes in which the OMX30 declines by at least 10 percent from a recent peak. Time-varying correlations are estimated using a Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model, allowing the analysis of how interasset relationships evolve over time. In addition, hedge effectiveness measures are employed to assess the cryptocurrencies practical ability to reduce portfolio risk.The results show that Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple exhibit weak but positive correlations with the Swedish equity market, implying that they may serve as diversifiers but not ashedges or safe-havens. During periods of financial stress, correlations tend to increase rather than decrease, indicating limited protective properties. Hedge effectiveness estimates further suggest that the risk-reducing capacity of cryptocurrencies is unstable and generally weak. Incontrast, gold displays more consistent negative correlations and superior hedging performance. Overall, the findings suggest that cryptocurrencies offer limited diversification benefits for Swedish investors and should not be considered reliable risk-mitigating assets during market stress.