Mind the Gap : Kompatibel lägesbild i gråzonen

Sammanfattning

This study examines how grey-zone ambiguity is understood and handled in the process of establishing compatible situational awareness within Sweden’s decentralized total defence system, focusing on the energy supply sector. Using an abductive content analysis with an interpretive approach, it adopts an exploratory case study design based on scenario-driven focus group discussions, applying Distributed Situation Awareness, Hybridity Blizzard Model and Fort logic. The findings illustrate a paradox: while the sector gives expression to strong operational robustness, it is perceived as strategically vulnerable due to vertical information gaps. Local actors prioritize restoration over attribution, which is interpreted as a risk where coordinated hybrid actions are absorbed into routine disturbances. The absence of proactive top-down intelligence sharing is understood as a factor that constrains the development of compatible situational awareness across levels. The study indicates that resilience in the grey zone depends on the quality of vertical information links enabling strategic interpretation of ambiguous events.