Movement or revolution? : A case study of demonstrations in Iran 2017 and 2022

Sammanfattning

The following paper analyses the similarities and differences as well as the motives and strategies of the demonstrations in Iran which occurred in 2017/2018 and since September of 2022. The findings are discussed using the Rentier State Theory. A pure comparative analysis is not made, rather a case study with the demonstrations as two components. The demonstrations that started in September 2022 is ongoing as of the writing of this paper, despite this are several findings made. Similarities are seen in the participating people between the years, as well as some recurring cities. The biggest differences are the longevity of the demonstrations despite interventions of the regime, the greater unity amongst socioeconomic groups in the ongoing demonstrations as well as the grievances of electoral frauds leading up t. The motive of 2022 is more focused on revolution instead of the reforms of 2017, these differences is however partly uncertain. The strategies were in the beginning similar, with taking of the headscarf as a more prominent action in the demonstrations of 2022. Many of the underlying grievances can be discussed via the Rentier State Theory, for example the democratic deficit and economic hardships. The details and observations are several, but the main conclusion is how the ongoing demonstrations are greater in both numbers, motives, and strategies. The theory is found useful to explain this phenomenon of instability and grievance between state and civilians.