Nordic Electricity Mix in Transition : Assessing Emission Factors for Swedish Real Estate Climate Reporting

Sammanfattning

Swedish real estate companies are facing increased requirements for greenhouse gas(GHG) reporting and developing long-term action plans for emission reduction. Electricity use constitutes a major share of the sectors operative emissions today andis currently a priority for reduction efforts. Yet, the sector lacks updated and forwardlooking studies on the average GHG emission intensity of electricity supplied to the grid. This research gap undermines the usefulness of long-term strategies and the credibility of the climate reporting in the industry. This thesis develops a transparent scenario-based model to estimate the averageScope 2 and Scope 3 emission intensity of electricity produced in the Nordic countries, with consideration for import and export. The model covers historical developments from 2018 to 2023, and projections for 2030 and 2045. Future outcomes are analysed through three scenarios grounded in national development reports and tested with a sensitivity analysis to reflect plausible variation due to uncertainties. Results indicate that Scope 2 emission intensity has declined rapidly in the recent years and will approach a near-zero level by 2045 across all scenarios. Scope 3 emissions, however, remain comparatively stable and therefore constitute a greater share of the future emissions. The study found that results are heavily dependent on system boundaries, which is surrounded by uncertainty, especially for the future scenarios. Further, the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the outcomes are highly dependent on fuel-emission factor selection and assumptions regarding future cross-border electricity flow. By making calculations and assumptions explicit, the thesis transparently show how the emission intensity of the Nordic electricity mix has and potentially will continue to develop. The study can therefore serve as a decision-support tool to strengthen the robustness of climate strategies and reporting in the real estate sector