Nordic Total Defence after 2022: Convergence within Divergent Institutional Paths

Sammanfattning

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 transformed the European security environment, leading Finland and Sweden to join NATO and placing Finland, Sweden and Norway within a shared alliance framework. Despite this, the three countries retain distinct national total defence models. This thesis asks whether the post-2022 security environment is producing convergence in the total defence architectures of Finland, Sweden and Norway, or whether historically embedded institutional paths continue to sustain divergence. The study combines historical institutionalism with elements of securitization theory to explain institutional change, continuity and the securitization dynamics shaping them. Methodologically, it follows a qualitative comparative case study design, using process tracing and comparative analysis of policy documents before and after 2022. The findings suggest partial convergence. All three countries are intensifying their securitization, moving in the same direction in strengthening civil-military cooperation, and doing so through layering and conversion within their existing institutional frameworks. Differences nevertheless persist and trace back to diverging historical trajectories in total defence. The thesis argues that the post-2022 environment has produced convergence in how the countries approach total defence and the significance of its comprehensiveness, but it has not affected convergence in a way that would dismantle the differing historical trajectories.