Pathways to Net-Zero in Moldova’s Energy Transition

Sammanfattning

Moldova’s ability to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 depends not only on renewable energy deployment, but on whether decarbonisation can strengthen energy security and social legitimacy under deep uncertainty. This thesis examines how structural drivers and critical uncertainties could shape alternative energy transition pathways for Moldova toward net-zero emissions by 2050. The study uses a qualitative foresight design combining documentary analysis, horizon scanning and expert questionnaire responses. A dataset of 111 signals was coded using a STEEP framework, synthesised into structural drivers and assessed by systemic impact and uncertainty. Governance capacity and geopolitical volatility were selected as the two critical uncertainties for an Intuitive Logics scenario matrix. The four resulting scenarios were evaluated through the 4As of energy security: availability, accessibility, affordability and acceptability. The findings show that Moldova’s main transition risk is not the complete absence of decarbonisation, but decarbonisation that fails to produce a secure or socially legitimate energy system. Across the scenarios, renewable deployment, European market integration and reduced reliance on Russian-linked energy arrangements continue in some form. The decisive difference is whether these shifts are supported by governance capacity, infrastructure planning and social protection. Under weak governance, diversification can produce a greener but still fragile system marked by grid bottlenecks, uneven renovation, persistent energy poverty and dependence on external finance or technology. Under stronger governance, similar pressures can be converted into resilience through coordinated grid investment, efficiency policy, municipal capacity and targeted affordability measures. The thesis argues that Moldova’s climateneutrality pathway should be understood less as a fixed technical target than as a governance challenge under uncertainty. Its contribution is to show that transition success depends on robustness across futures, rather than emissions reduction alone.