Peacekeeping and aid worker security : A quantitative study on the effects of peacekeeping troops on aid worker security

Sammanfattning

Violence against aid workers has increased markedly in recent decades, with a growing share of incidents perpetrated by state actors. Despite the expansion of United Nations peacekeeping operations (PKO), the effect of peacekeeping presence on aid worker security remains contested. This study examines whether UN peacekeeping troop size is associated with reduced violence against aid workers and whether this relationship differs between non-state armed groups (NSAGs) and state perpetrators. Using monthly grid-cell data from conflict-affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 1997 and 2020, the analysis combines geocoded PKO data from the UCDP with incident data from the Aid Worker Security Database. Ordinary Least Squares regression models with extensive controls and robustness checks are employed. The results consistently show a positive association between peacekeeping troop size and violence against aid workers. This association is stronger for NSAG-perpetrated violence than for state-perpetrated violence. These findings highlight the need for more fine-grained, disaggregated analyses of peacekeeping characteristics and local dynamics shaping aid worker security.