Polish Deterrence on the Eastern Flank: Sensemaking of the term ‘deterrence’ from a Polish stance since 2014

Sammanfattning

This thesis examines how Poland has understood and articulated deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank in response to Russia’s gradual aggression, beginning with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and culminating in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Poland’s approach to deterrence is analysed across the dimensions of domestic politics, regional context and NATO cooperation. Using a discourse-oriented approach through a constructivist lens, the thesis illustrates how Polish understandings of deterrence are shaped by both internal political dynamics and external security developments. Since 2014, Poland has sought to frame deterrence as a collective mission requiring stronger regional and transatlantic cooperation. Regional relations have served to amplify the voice of frontline states within NATO, particularly in relation to the United States. At the same time, Poland’s domestic political visions and disagreements across the political spectrum have complicated the formation of a coherent and unified security strategy. The thesis further argues that Poland’s identity, strongly shaped by its geography and historical experiences, is central to its approach to deterrence. The determination to avoid once again falling under foreign domination or external influence forms a key foundation of Poland’s contemporary deterrence strategy.