Portuguese Diplomatic Caution as Strategy : Understanding Portugal's Deliberate Diplomatic Restraint Within the Community of Portuguese Language Countries

Sammanfattning

This thesis looks at how Portugal positions itself in politically sensitive situations within the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP), and how the pattern of delay, caution, and institutionally mediated responses that consistently characterizes its diplomatic behavior can be understood, as a failure of normative commitment or as something more deliberate. Rather than treating that pattern as an absence of political will, this thesis argues that it functions as a diplomatic strategy, shaped by post-colonial sensitivities, small-state constraints, and the institutional and procedural logic of a multilateral organization built on shared historical ties. The empirical analysis focuses on three cases: Portugal's role in the independence of East Timor, its responses to recurring political instability in Guinea-Bissau, and its positioning regarding Equatorial Guinea's CPLP membership. In order to explain the variation across them, the thesis relies on three theoretical frameworks, small-state theory, constructive and strategic ambiguity, and post-colonial theory, all used together as complementary lenses. The methodology combines comparative case study design with discourse analysis and process tracing. Ultimately, the thesis argues that Portugal's restraint within the CPLP reflects a strategic choice, and that the East Timor case makes it clear that it does not have to be that way.