Projecting China’s Solar Photovoltaic Capacity to 2050 : An Exploratory Trend Analysis

Sammanfattning

In the context of China's energy transition and power-system reconfiguration, the expansion of solar PV installations is important for evaluating low-carbon power development. Using annual cumulative installedcapacity data for China from 2000 to 2024, this study focuses on the rapid expansion period from 2010 to 2024. It combines descriptive analysis with YoY growth, annual additions, CAGR, and linear and log-linear trend models to produce trend-based projections to 2050 and compare them with the long-term capacity vision of approximately 5,000 GW. The results show that cumulative installed capacity increased from 0.03 GW in 2000 to 887.93 GW in 2024. The CAGR from 2010 to 2024 was 62.15%, compared with 40.74% from 2000 to 2010, indicating a shift from low-base diffusion to large-scale deployment. The linear model has an R-squared (R²) of 0.769 and gives a 2050 projection of approximately 1,864 GW. The log-linear model has a higher R-squared (R²) of 0.9326, but its back-transformed long-term values illustrate the mathematical effect of unconstrained exponential extrapolation rather than a feasible capacity projection. The study shows that China's historical PV expansion has been supported by policy support, manufacturing scale, investment capacity, cost reductions, and grid-connection conditions, but future outcomes will depend on broader system integration conditions. The thesis provides a transparent empirical baseline based on historical trends; it does not replace structural scenario analysis, and future research should incorporate provincial differences, policy changes, and system constraints to improve the real-world explanatory power of long-term assessment.