Rebels Ruling: Protracted Conflict or a Fast Track to Peace? : A quantitative study on the effects of rebel governance on conflict duration

Sammanfattning

The longevity of conflict is affected by many different factors, ranging from external involvement to geographical components. The warring parties and their behaviors are highly relevant to consider as well, but one frequent action has yet to be examined in relation to the conflict duration field: rebel governance. This paper investigates if rebels engaging in governance, such as establishing healthcare or judicial systems, impacts how long conflict lasts. Two competing theoretical arguments are tested, one arguing for a lengthening of conflict, and the other for a shortening of conflict if rebel governance is present. The hypotheses are tested using the quantitative method of OLS regression using the Rebel Governance Dataset (Huang, 2016c). Aside from the main regression which looks at rebel governance generally, two separate regressions using specific types of governance are also included due to their high theoretical relevance. The results do not show support for either of the hypotheses in their entirety. There is, however, indications that specific types of rebel governance lengthen conflict, suggesting that parts of the argument for a positive relationship could be relevant for future research.