Spatial Prioritisation of Nature-based Solutions for Climate Adaptation in Gävle : A participatory GIS-based Multi-Criteria Analysis

Sammanfattning

Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including flooding, heat, and biodiversity loss, driven by factors such as high population density, concentrated infrastructure, and extensive urban impermeabilisation. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have been identified as an effective and multifunctional tool for urban climate adaptation. However, the identification of suitable implementation locations within already-developed urban areas remains a significant challenge. The study aimed to establish and apply a participatory geographical information system (GIS)-based multi-criteria analysis (MCA) framework to identify and prioritise locations for NbS implementation in the urban areas of Gävle, Sweden, as part of the ClimaResponse project. Two stakeholder workshops were conducted with local expert stakeholders from Gävle municipality, through which evaluation criteria and weights were identified. The criteria encompassed environmental and social dimensions, including flooding from cloudbursts, heat, noise, landslide risk, air quality, vulnerable population groups, water resources, drinking water protection, and ecosystem (habitat connectivity). The criteria and weights were subsequently integrated into the suitability modeler in ArcGIS PRO, producing two composite priority maps: one applying stakeholder-assigned weights and one applying equal weights as a sensitivity analysis. Both maps identified densely built, road-intensive areas of Gävle, particularly Norrtull, Strömsbro, and Valbo, as the highest priority areas for NbS implementation. The spatial convergence of both maps on the urban core reinforces the conclusion that these areas are vulnerable across environmental and social dimensions simultaneously. The participatory element ensured that the results reflect local knowledge, strengthening the relevance and applicability of the findings for municipal NbS planning.