Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Agricultural Land Loss under Urban Expansion: A Case Study of Skåne, Sweden

Sammanfattning

This study examines the spatio-temporal dynamics of agricultural land loss under urban expansion in Skåne, Sweden, between 2002 and 2025. The research was motivated by increasing concerns regarding rapid urbanisation, peri-urban land transformation, and the long-term sustainability of productive agricultural land within one of Sweden’s most important agricultural regions. The study aimed to quantify agricultural land conversion, analyse spatial patterns of urban expansion, and examine the governance dynamics influencing land-use change. An explanatory sequential mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), land-use transition analysis, hotspot mapping, document analysis, and field observations. Landsat imagery from 2002 and 2025 was processed using two complementary workflows: an EarthExplorer/QGIS workflow and a Google Earth Engine(GEE)-based workflow. Supervised classification techniques were used to classify four harmonised land-use classes: agricultural land, built-up areas, forest, and water bodies. Spatial analysis was conducted at both county and municipality levels to identify agricultural land loss, built-up expansion, and agricultural-to-built-up land conversion patterns across Skåne. The findings reveal substantial urban expansion across Skåne during the study period. Built-up areas increased from approximately 103,958 ha in 2002 to 147,648 ha in 2025, while net agricultural land area declined slightly at the regional scale, from approximately 570,223 ha to568,764 ha. However, municipality-level and transition analyses show that agricultural-to-built-up conversion was spatially concentrated in peri-urban municipalities and along major transport corridors. The study further demonstrates that agricultural land loss in Skåne is shaped not only by economic and spatial processes but also by governance dynamics within Sweden’s decentralised planning system. Although national planning frameworks emphasise farmland protection, municipal development priorities frequently favour housing expansion, infrastructure development, and regional economic growth. Overall, the study concludes that existing planning and governance mechanisms may be insufficient to effectively balance long-term agricultural land preservation with continuing urban growth pressures. The study therefore recommends strengthening multi-level planning coordination, improving agricultural land protection mechanisms, and promoting more compact and sustainable urban development strategies within rapidly urbanising regions.