Splitting Success : An Analysis of EV/EBITDA Multiples in Nordic Spin-off Transactions

Sammanfattning

This thesis examines the valuation of corporate spin-offs in the Nordic public markets, assessing how firm-specific, industry-specific, and macroeconomic factors influence EV/EBITDA multiples at the point of separation. Despite the growing strategic significance of spin-offs, limited research has systematically examined their valuation determinants, particularly within the Nordic context. Using a dataset of 56 spin-offs completed between 1999 and 2024 across Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, the study applies multiple linear regression models, including raw, winsorized, and log-transformed specifications, to ensure robust analysis while mitigating data distortions. The findings indicate that the firm-specific factor, profitability (LnEBITDA), is the primary driver of valuation outcomes. Industry classification and macroeconomic sentiment, proxied by MSCI Nordic Index returns, exhibit no significant influence on valuation multiples, suggesting that spin-off valuations in the Nordic region are primarily shaped by firm fundamentals rather than external market dynamics. These findings contribute to the corporate finance literature by addressing a critical research gap in spin-off valuation within the Nordic markets, underscoring the prominence of profitability in shaping valuation outcomes. The study provides practical implications for corporate strategists, investors, and practitioners, emphasizing the importance of prioritising transaction structuring and operational fundamentals when assessing spin-off valuations in the Nordic context.