Storbritanniens erkännande av Palestina som stat

Sammanfattning

This study examines why the United Kingdom recognised Palestine as a state in September 2025. Using theory-testing process tracing, two competing theoretical frameworks are tested against empirical material spanning January 2024 to September 2025: Putnam's two-level game theory and Finnemore and Sikkink's norm diffusion theory. The study finds that the recognition is primarily explained by two-level game theory. The decision was enabled by a convergence of domestic and international support that gradually expanded the government's win-set to the point where recognition became politically feasible. The conditional recognition pledge of 29 July 2025, in which the Prime Minister stated the UK would recognise Palestine "unless" Israel changed course, constitutes the strongest single piece of evidence for this conclusion. It demonstrates that recognition was used as a strategic bargaining tool rather than a normative commitment. Norm diffusion theory plays a necessary but secondary role, explaining the opportunity structure created by the norm cascade led by France, Canada and Australia, and the legitimating language through which the decision was communicated. The study contributes to the political science literature on state recognition by demonstrating that recognition decisions in democratic systems are primarily driven by strategic calculations, while normative factors play an important enabling and legitimating role.