Styrräntan och dess påverkan på bostadsprisutvecklingen i Sverige efter år 2010

Sammanfattning

This study examines how the Riksbank’s policy interest rate has affected housing prices in Sweden during the period 2010 to 2025. Particularly interesting is this period due to it including both historically low interest rates, down to negative rates, and one of the fastest increased rates cycles in Swedish modern times between 2022 and 2023. Sweden stands out among European countries since a large share of Swedish mortgages have variable interest rates and households carry high levels of debt, meaning that interest rates changes affect household finances very quickly. To examine this relationship, a VAR model is used, it is a statistical method for analysing how variables affect each other over time. The model includes three variables: the policy rate, housing prices measured by the HOX index, and household interest costs as a share of income. The third variable is included to capture the cash flow channel, meaning how rate changes affect households finances and their willingness to pay for housing. The results show that housing prices fall when the policy rate is raised, with effects visible within 2 to 3 months and the strongest impact around 6 to 8 months. Household interest costs rise quickly after a rate increase, confirming that the cash flow channel is an important explanation for falling housing prices. Overall, the results support that the policy rate plays an important role in housing price development in Sweden.