Temperaturmodellering och validering av solceller : En jämförande studie av solcellstemperaturens och monteringssättets påverkan på produktionen

Sammanfattning

Both here in Sweden and around the world, interest in solar cell technology is increasing. In Sweden alone, a total of 1600,9 MW of new solar cell capacity was connected to the power grid in 2023, spread across approximately 104000 installations. Compared to 2022, this represents more than a doubling of capacity and a 70% increase in the number of installations. The growing interest in solar installations has highlighted certain limitations, primarily the difficulty in predicting production levels. To improve efficiency and increase the reliability of actual electricity production, as well as to estimate investment costs more accurately, further research and development are required. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the cell temperature of solar panels is affected by the mounting method and how this in turn influences the energy output. The study compares a ground-mounted and a roof-mounted PV system using real measurements from Glava Energy Center. This data has been used in the simulation model Alfrödull to compare the measured values with several existing temperature models found in the literature. The analysis was conducted using statistical error metrics such as MBE, RMSE, MAE, and R2 to assess the accuracy of the models. The results show that the mounting method has a significant impact on cell temperature, as the models yield different results for the two mounting types. This demonstrates that accurate temperature modeling is crucial for realistically estimating the electricity production of solar panels. The results of this thesis led to an improved estimation of cell temperature for Alfrödull and can also be used in the development of other simulation tools to provide more reliable production calculations.