The Impact of AI on Employment Trends in Sweden : A Quantitative Secondary Data Analysis within the Nordic Welfare Framework

Sammanfattning

This analysis considers the effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology on Sweden’s work opportunities between 2015 and 2024, viewed through the lens of its Nordic welfare model. AI adoption during the projected timeframe will put 46% of Swedish jobs at high or medium risk of losing automation by 2040, mainly impacting retail, manufacturing, healthcare, and finance. The analysis takes a quantitative approach by assessing sectoral employment changes, skill-level alterations, and the impact of labour market policies. Guided by the Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC) and Skill-Biased Technological Change (SBTC) frameworks, the AI impacts mid-skilled versus high-skilled employment negatively and positively, respectively. Sweden’s institutional weaknesses high union density and strong collective bargaining combined with Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) help lessen the damage in mid- to high-skilled employment through effective retraining and transition support. Comparative analysis against other Nordic countries shows Sweden’s subdued but efficient policy response as moderately unique. The adoption of AI alongside proposed tailored policies and interventions focused on equitable employment shifts highlights the importance of not only equitable demographic targeting but also adaptive welfare frameworks. This study documents the steps that proactive welfare states can take to reduce the socio-economic risks of automation for developing a proactive policy approach to AI.