The Political Psychology of Authoritarian Populism : Collective Narcissism and Ethnocentrism in Donald Trump´s Political Rhetoric

Sammanfattning

Recent failures to anticipate consequential political developments reveal analytical blind spotsin Western security analysis. Across both interstate conflict and domestic political change,assessments have repeatedly underestimated the role of psychological, ideological, andemotional drivers of political behavior. Since authoritarian state behavior and authoritarianpopulism share key psychological mechanisms, studying both offers substantial value forsecurity analysis. This thesis focuses on authoritarian populism, examining how Collective Narcissism andEthnocentrism manifest in Donald Trump´s political rhetoric, using a Directed QualitativeContent Analysis of eight major speeches (2016-2025). The results identify a consistentCollective Narcissism pattern organized around collective humiliation, elite betrayal, andpromised restoration, with norm-breaking and aggression appearing during escalatorymoments. Ethnocentrism emerges more selectively but reliably amplifies Collective Narcissismin domains such as immigration, crime, and economic exploitation. The findings provide psychological micro-foundations for understanding authoritarian-populistmobilization, outline directions future research, and offer an analytical framework for earlywarning assessments of democratic erosion, alliance volatility, and conflict risk. By integratingpolitical psychology into strategic analysis, this study contributes to both political psychologyand war studies.