The Role of the Middle Corridor and Future Planned Zangezur Corridor in World Trade

Sammanfattning

This dissertation examines how institutional cooperation affects trade performance along the Middle Corridor, a transregional route linking Central Asia and Europe, and assesses its implications for the proposed Zangezur Corridor. The study draws on panel data for the period 2010–2025 and applies econometric models, including pooled OLS and fixed and random effects regressions, to test whether shared institutional memberships influence bilateral trade flows.The analysis finds a consistent positive relationship between institutional cooperation and trade. Each additional shared institutional framework, such as participation in TRACECA, TITR, or the World Trade Organization, corresponds to an increase in bilateral trade of approximately 12–15 percent. These results align with the expectations of neoliberal institutionalism, which links cooperation to reduced transaction costs and improved coordination. At the same time, the findings show that institutional effects depend on supporting conditions. Infrastructure quality strengthens the relationship between cooperation and trade, while political stability shows a positive but less consistent effect across model specifications.The study extends the empirical results through a counterfactual simulation of the Zangezur Corridor. Under conditions similar to those observed along the Middle Corridor, the model predicts trade increases in the range of 15–25 percent for key country pairs. These projections indicate that institutional alignment, combined with adequate infrastructure, can support trade expansion, although outcomes remain sensitive to political and logistical constraints.The dissertation contributes to research in international relations and political economy by linking theoretical arguments with quantitative evidence. It shows that institutional cooperation has measurable effects on trade, while also demonstrating that these effects vary across contexts. The findings provide a structured basis for evaluating future corridor projects and highlight the interaction between institutions, infrastructure, and geopolitical conditions in shaping regional connectivity.