The Uneven Burden of Economic Sanctions. : A SCM Analysis of the Socio-economic Effects of Sanctions on Agriculture & Industry Sectors.

Sammanfattning

This paper examines the uneven socio-economic impacts of economic sanctions on the agriculture & industry sectors, with a specific focus on Iran, and Russia. Employing the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study constructs counterfactuals to evaluate the causal effects of sanctions on key economic sectors, including agriculture and industry. The findings reveal that sanctions disrupted trade, employment, and income stability, with rural and industrial sectors bearing the brunt of these impacts. Despite resilience strategies such as domestic production shifts and alternative trade partnerships, both nations experienced prolonged economic inequalities and constrained recovery. This research provides critical insights into the interplay between sanctions, socio-economic vulnerabilities, and resilience strategies. The results underline the importance of targeted sanctions that minimize civilian harm while achieving political objectives.