Towards Resource-Smart and Fossil-Free Plastic Flows : A Systems Perspective on Transition and Governance in the Swedish Plastics Value Chain

Sammanfattning

The transition away from virgin fossil-based plastics has become increasingly important in relation to climate mitigation, circular economy ambitions, and more sustainable resource use. Despite growing political pressure, technological development, and increasing sustainability demands, the Swedish plastics system remains strongly dependent on virgin fossil-based raw materials, while broader system transformation continues to progress slowly. Against this background, this study explores how actors across different parts of the Swedish plastics value chain perceive drivers, barriers, and opportunities in the phase -out of virgin fossil-based plastics, and how governance processes shape this transition in practice. To address the research aim, a qualitative multi -method design and methodological triangulation were applied, combining semi-structured interviews with fifteen actors representing different parts of the Swedish plastics value chain with document analysis of national policy reports and strategic documents. Interview data were analysed through thematic coding, while the document analysis was used to contextualise and complement the themes identified i n the interviews. The empirical material was then interpreted through the Multi-Level Perspective and governance theory with an institutional focus. The findings show that actors across the value chain largely share the view that a phase -out of virgin fossil-based plastics is necessary from both environmental and climate perspectives. At the same time, the transition is constrained by structural lock-ins, market uncertainty, fragmented coordination, limited material availability, and inconsistent policy implementation. The findings further show that many existing policy instruments could have significantly greater impact through stronger implementation, clearer responsibilities, and improved coordination between actors across the value chain. While technical innovation, recycling, alternative materials, and increasing policy pressure create important drivers for change, the findings also identify significant opportunities earlier in the value chain through product design, reuse systems, longer product lifetimes, reduced unnecessary plastic consumption, and more resource-smart use of existing materials. An important empirical finding is that interviewed actors primarily emphasise recycling, material substitution, and technical solutions, while the document analysis more explicitly highlights preventive and upstream-oriented measures as central parts of long-term system transformation. The study concludes that the phase-out of virgin fossil-based plastics in Sweden cannot be understood solely as a technical substitution or a downstream recycling challenge. Rather, it requires a broader socio-technical transformation where technological development, governance processes, institutional coordination, market conditions, and shifts in production and consumption patterns develop in parallel.