(Un)Usual coalitions? Why Social Democrats and Moderates form coalitions in Swedish municipalities

Sammanfattning

This thesis examines the formation of coalitions between the Social Democrats (S) and the Moderates (M) in Swedish municipalities, traditionally ideological opposites, in the context of changing political landscapes. The study explores the strategic and structural factors influencing coalition formation. Classical coalition theories and hypotheses derived from contagion theory, and the role of populist and local parties are tested against empirical data from municipal assemblies from 1994 elections to 2022. The findings suggest that declining vote shares for the parties, fragmented assemblies, contagion effects and bargaining advantages from few bargaining parties affect the likelihood of grand coalitions forming in Swedish municipalities.