Vilka narrativ om hybrida hot representeras i svenska doktriner och rapporter mellan 2020–2025? En narrativanalys med Sverige som fall

Sammanfattning

In today’s debate regarding security policy the term hybrid warfare has taken a more prominent role in recent years. The term hybrid warfare is surrounded by a lot of ambiguity and previous research provides several different definitions of the term. This study aims to increase the understanding regarding the phenomenon of hybrid warfare by applying narrative analysis on Swedish official texts. Furthermore, the study aims to increase the understanding of how security threats are constructed in a Swedish context. In more broad terms, the study examines how security threats are constructed through how political and military leaders address the problem. To carry out the analysis, a generalizable framework to analyze narrative in hybrid warfare will be used consisting of the four factors: threat, threatened value, response and knowledge. The study identifies three narratives regarding hybrid warfare, diffuse threats in the gray zone, increased Russian risk-taking and the race between Russia, China, Iran and Nato. Together they each add a piece of the puzzle to construct an understanding of the complex threat of hybrid warfare in Sweden and shows how one definition in itself is not a satisfactory description of the phenomenon.