Willingness to Stay? : A Discrete Choice Experiment on the Drivers of Rural–Urban Migration in Central Mexico

Sammanfattning

This thesis explores the conditions that shape rural-urban migration decisions in the community of San Jerónimo Tecuanipan, in Central Mexico. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study combines qualitative insights from semi-structured interviews and a focus group, with a quantitative Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) implemented through surveys to junior high school and high school students. The DCE was designed to elicit their stated preferences regarding the conditions under which they would prefer to stay in their community rather than migrate. The findings from the mixed logit model reveal that while migration is generally perceived as the default or status quo option, specific local improvements in areas such as green spaces and entrepreneurship support can meaningfully shift youth preferences toward remaining in their community. In contrast, wage levels showed less consistent influence and greater heterogeneity across the sample. These findings provide insights into how youth migration preferences are shaped not only by economic reasoning, but also by their expectations of community life, access to meaningful opportunities, and environmental quality. As such, rural development would benefit from policies that pay greater attention to youth aspirations, local agency, and the specific conditions shaping life in rural communities. The findings of this study contribute to broader discussions on internal migration and rural transformation in Mexico.