A Decline in Terrorist Violence : A case study of the Islamic State Khorasan Province's terrorist attacks in 2024 and 2025

Sammanfattning

The violence employed by terrorists has attracted significant attention in recent decades. The surprising effect, pervasive dread, and extreme use of violence portray terrorism as a substantial threat. Researchers and politicians attempt to comprehend the emergence, increase, and spread of terrorism to formulate effective responses to prevent further terror attacks. The goal is to inflict such devastation upon a terrorist organization that it will decline and be compelled to terminate its activities. However, the phenomenon of the decline of terrorist violence receives limited attention, and if it is addressed at all, it is primarily from a governmental perspective. This thesis seeks to address the existing gap by adopting a multidimensional approach to the phenomenon of decline in terrorist violence over two years. The decline is conceptualized through the intentionality and the nature of the decline. Indicators, including attack frequency, casualties, and campaign strategy, measure the decline in the statistical analysis. The thematic analysis interprets the decline in broader conflict dynamics, focusing on the themes of counterterrorism, relocation, and internal dynamics. This thesis is a single instrumental case study that illustrates and assesses the phenomenon of decline through the case of the ISKP. The ISKP is a jihadist terror organization in Afghanistan. The use of violence by ISKP members is a means to achieve their goals and a religious duty. Over the years 2024 and 2025, a notable decline in ISKP’s use of violence occurred, rendering the group a subject of particular interest for in-depth research. Through analyzing event data and institutional reports collected from regional news media outlets and international institutions and organizations, the thesis concludes that the decline in ISKP’s use of violence is the result of interacting aspects.