AI and Junior Hiring - Evidence From Swedish Job Postings

Sammanfattning

The rapid diffusion of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) has raised widespread concerns about its employment effects for workers at the earliest stages of their careers. In this thesis, we investigate whether Generative AI has disproportionately reduced the number of vacancies for junior workers, who typically perform the routine tasks that AI is best suited to replace. Using approximately 3.6 million job postings from Sweden's largest job boards spanning 2021 to 2026, we classify postings by seniority using a novel keyword-based classification of job title and implement a fixed-effect difference-in-differences design that exploits variation in occupational AI exposure before and after the release of ChatGPT in November 2022. We find evidence consistent with higher AI exposure occupations experiencing a disproportionate decline in junior share of seniority-classified postings following the release of ChatGPT, with the effects emerging gradually from 2024 onward.