Analyzing VOACAP Predictions Using Real World WSPR Data : Testing SNR and Reliability Forecasts with Antenna and Noise Uncertainty

Sammanfattning

Information transfer is one of the most important aspects of our modern society. Today, one of the most prevalent methods consist of utilizing the heavily infrastructure dependent internet. To avoid complete communication blackout, or just for personal interest, many private, commercial, and state actors maintain and develop the usage of radio communications. One way of sending radio over long distances is by ”bouncing” high frequency waves in the atmosphere, however, the signal strength and overall success of the bounce depends on many factors, the most common of which being the time of day and the frequency of the signal. In order to increase success rate of signals various programs and protocols have been created to measure and predict the best frequency depending on these factors. Voice Of America Coverage Analysis Program (VOACAP) and Weak Signal Propagation Reporter (WSPR) are a prediction program and radio communication protocol respectively, created specifically to gain better understanding of these factors. In this study we attempt to create a rudimentary statistical analysis of VOACAP’s prediction capabilities by comparing a real world scenario provided by WSPR data to the simulated version in VOACAP. We discover that due to inadequate datapoints collected and stored in the WSPR database and lack of antenna information, we are unable to accurately assign a value to the correctness of the prediction, yet a general trend analysis was able to be created. The analysis suggested VOACAP’s prediction to be quite accurate with good applicability for a 100 km radius around the used reception point.