Att testa gränser utan krig : Klassisk realism och säkerhetspolitisk respons på drönarintrånget i Polen 2025

Sammanfattning

The increased proliferation of drone technology has contributed to transformations in contemporary security dynamics by facilitating military operations below the threshold of overt armed conflict. This study examines the alleged drone incursion into Polish airspace on 9-10 September, an incident that prompted Poland to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which classical realism can explain state behavior in technologically mediated grey-zone conflicts. Using a theory-driven qualitative content analysis, this study analyzes official statements from Poland, Russia, and NATO. Classical realism is operationalized through three analytical dimensions: national interest, uncertainty within an anarchic international system, and the balance between provocation and strategic prudence. The findings indicate that classical realism offers analytical leverage in explaining how actors articulate security interests, manage uncertainty, and avoid escalation. However, the analysis also highlights limitations of the theory, particularly regarding attributional ambiguity, institutional constraints, and the role of strategic communications in grey-zone contexts. The study concludes that classical realism retains explanatory relevance, yet demonstrates analytical limitations when applied to contemporary drone-related security incidents.