Comparison of temperature variability and trends in Svalbard and Franz Joseph Land

Sammanfattning

Arctic warming is assumed to be four times the global warming. A published study by Ivanov et al. (2019) shows that the annual average temperature of Franz Joseph Land (the world’s northernmost island region, a Russian territory) has increased by 5.2 °C from 2000-2017. This result supported the idea of determining whether Svalbard (Norwegian territory) is experiencing similar warming. Svalbard has historically been an attractive research center for examining climate change in the Arctic. Due to easier accessibility, the vast majority of weather stations have been located on the western part of the main island, Spitsbergen, which does not provide a representative picture of the entire archipelago. Therefore, this project has focused on eastern Spitsbergen. Data from six stations have been processed to analyze the temperature changes based on linear regression (the same method as at Franz Joseph Land). As eastern Spitsbergen has never been a priority, only short datasets are available, with the longest one dating from 2009. Because of this, no statistically significant result could be elucidated. Instead, data from Longyearbyen, which is located southwest were implemented, allowing analysis over the same period as Franz Joseph Land (2000-2017). This result suggested a temperature increase of 5.6 °C for the same period, with a statistical significance of P = 0.13, as well as that the winters are extra vulnerable to warming. The stations from eastern Spitsbergen’s local variability were also examined, which showed that the local climate varies although the stations are relatively close. Among others, Pyramiden seemed to be most affected by the lapse rate feedback, meaning a significant strong warming at the surface.