Creating a Resilient Supply Chain: Modeling the Impact of New Sourcing Markets on Key Performance Indicators

Sammanfattning

In recent years, global supply chains have become increasingly exposed to disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions, wars, and other external uncertainties. At ASSA ABLOY's Business Segment Pedestrian (BSP), this has led to a need to reassess the current sourcing strategy, particularly within inbound logistics, where a strong dependence on a limited number of sourcing locations has created vulnerabilities. To address this, BSP is considering expanding its supplier base to new sourcing markets. However, such changes introduce trade-offs related to cost efficiency, tied-up capital, and environmental impact, requiring a more structured decision-making approach. The analysis shows that increasing the number of sourcing markets can enhance supply chain resilience by reducing dependency on single-sourcing regions and mitigating trade-related risks. However, the impact varies across KPIs. Total landed cost is driven by purchase price, tariffs, and transportation costs, with tariffs emerging as a particularly influential and volatile factor. Diversification may lead to higher short-term costs, especially at low order volumes, but these effects decrease over time as economies of scale are achieved. Material throughput time (MTPT) reflects tied-up capital and is primarily influenced by lead times and goods in transit, while CO$_2$ emissions are driven by transport distance and item characteristics. Although emissions currently have a limited influence on decision-making, their importance is expected to increase in the future. The study also identifies key enablers for a successful transition, including strong supplier relationships, effective use of third-party logistics providers, and digital tools. While advanced technologies such as AI tools offer significant potential, their effectiveness depends on data availability and organizational maturity. The developed model demonstrates how relatively simple tools can enhance decision-making and transparency. Overall, this thesis provides practical insights into how global companies can evaluate sourcing and logistics strategies under increased complexity. The findings and model can support organizations in balancing resilience, cost efficiency, and sustainability, while future research could expand the model to include additional variables and more advanced data capabilities.