Day after the Caliphate: A comparative study of the political participation of Shia militias in post IS Iraq using the militia to party framework

Sammanfattning

The territorial defeat of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq in 2019 marked a turning point in the country’s security and political order, foregrounding the challenge of integrating powerful Shia militias into formal politics while preserving state authority and democratic processes. This study examines why some militias have been more successful than others in translating wartime influence into electoral and institutional power in post-IS Iraq. Drawing on the militia-to-party framework, supplemented by network-based approaches, the paper conducts a comparative case study of the Badr Organization and Kataʾib Hezbollah (KH). Despite shared ideological roots, participation in the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and close ties to Iran, these two groups have achieved markedly different political outcomes. The analysis focuses on three key explanatory dimensions: internal cohesion and incentives (factions), societal support and mobilization (followers), and the relationship between political participation and organizational purpose. The findings demonstrate that Badr’s comparatively strong electoral performance and sustained parliamentary presence are rooted in early institutional penetration, cohesive leadership, broad societal embedding, and incentive structures that reward political participation. In contrast, KH’s political engagement remains subordinate to a resistance-centered identity, with selective incentives and prestige still anchored primarily in military activity, limiting its ability to expand electoral appeal. The study argues that divergent outcomes are best explained by organizational adaptation and strategic choice rather than ideology or external patronage alone. More broadly, the Iraqi case challenges linear militia-to-party models by illustrating how armed actors can participate in formal politics without full demilitarization, contributing to a durable hybrid political order. The article thus advances understanding of post-conflict political transitions in contexts where armed groups remain central to governance.