Decreasing dependence on Russian oil export infrastructure: Kazakhstan's road to diversification

Sammanfattning

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 the question of over dependence on Russian oil pipeline infrastructure for oil exporting countries in Central Asia has become a pressing issue, and for Kazakhstan in particular. The vulnerability of over-dependence has prompted Kazakhstan to turn to alternative oil export pipelines routes. This thesis examines the way in which Kazakhstan has diversified their oil export routes after Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as how Kazakhstan and their largest oil importer, the EU, addresses the diversification. By using the international relations theories realism and liberalism this thesis investigates if we can detect language related to these theories in public statements about the diversification from the two actors. A quantitative method is used to investigate how Kazakhstan has diversified its oil flows by pipeline in comparison with predictions made both before and after 2022, and a qualitative deductive discourse analysis is used to investigate if language related to the realist and liberalist theories is used in public statements from Kazakhstan and the EU which addresses the diversification. This thesis demonstrates that Kazakhstan has increased their oil exports through an alternative pipeline after the full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in spite of prior export predictions, and that realist and liberalist rhetoric has been used when discussing the decision to diversify, and while both geopolitic and economic incentives for diversification were discovered, the economic argument was proven to be stronger. This thesis has thereby made an attempt to address the puzzle of how and why a state reduces their dependence on infrastructure controlled by another state, when this can be considered costly, risky, and difficult, and how this is motivated politically to the public.