Diverging Interests under the EU Sanctions Regime: A Comparative Case Study of Hungary and Poland

Sammanfattning

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted an immediate sanctions response from the European Union (EU). However, this response revealed diverging interests within the EU, since energy sanctions affected member states unevenly. This was particularly visible in the cases of Hungary and Poland, where energy dependence and security concerns differ. Therefore, this research analyses what factors explain Hungary’s and Poland’s differing positions towards EU energy sanctions against Russia. This study adopted a qualitative comparative case study approach and examined EU policy documents, news agency reports and political statements. Two-Level Game Theory was used as the overarching framework, while Realism and Liberal Intergovernmentalism were used to interpret and analyse security interests, national preferences and EU-level bargaining. The findings show that Hungary is more dependent on Russian energy sources, contributing to a narrower win-set that limits the range of EU sanctions measures Hungary can support. In contrast, Poland has a more diversified energy supply and is more security-focused, creating a broader win-set that enables the state to support stricter energy sanctions. This study argues that Hungary’s and Poland’s positions are explained by the interaction between energy dependence and economic interests, security interests, and public opinion. The study therefore shows that domestic interests shape national preferences and influence each state’s bargaining position within the EU.