Electrification’s impact on system dynamics in public transportation

Sammanfattning

The transition to electric buses in public transport represents a significant technological shift, influencing the structural and dynamic characteristics of existing transportation systems. This thesis investigates how electrification is reshaping Sweden’s public transport system, with a particular focus on charging infrastructure and the rigidity introduced by public procurement. Using the Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) framework, the study analyses structural and functional changes, examining how system actors, networks, and institutions interact and evolve in response to technological innovation. The research is based on qualitative data, including 14 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders such as Public Transport Authorities (PTAs), Public Transport Operators (PTOs), charging infrastructure providers, grid owners, researchers, and industry associations. The findings show that electrification introduces substantial complexity in operational planning and long-term asset management. The study highlights a trade-off between social, environmental, and economic sustainability, stemming from tensions between underdeveloped supply chains and increasingly stringent procurement requirements. A systemic misalignment is identified between institutional frameworks, market incentives, and the pace of technological progress, resulting in elevated operational risks. The analysis identifies key inducement and blocking mechanisms affecting the diffusion of electric buses and charging infrastructure, and concludes with policy recommendations aimed at enhancing system functionality. These include addressing the risk imbalance that has emerged, increasing the flexibility of procurement time-frames, strengthening of cross-functional system coordination and governance, and expanding public ownership or control of depots. Overall, the study contributes to the sustainable transitions literature by demonstrating how the TIS framework can be applied to understand evolving socio-technical systems in the context of the electrification of public transportation.