En GIS-analys för maximering av vindkraftskapacitet i Skåne

Sammanfattning

The current electrification of the energy sector puts high demands on increasing domestic electricity production in Sweden. This issue is enhanced by the current regional imbalance between supply and demand, while a major share of electricity generation is located in northern Sweden, consumption is concentrated in the south. Consequently, the need for new production is particularly great in electricity zone SE4. One region that faces especially challenging demands is Scania that has a self-sufficiency for electricity of only 15 %, resulting in a high dependency on imports. The region is in need of additional power sources where wind power is a promising contestant. The conditions for onshore and offshore wind power are favourable, however the region's relatively high population density (in comparison to the rest of Sweden) leaves few areas free of conflicting interests. An additional problem is found in the ageing of existing wind turbines that will risk creating a loss of capacity without the necessary measures. Therefore an upgrade through repowering is needed. This thesis investigates the potential of wind power in Scania through a spatial analysis of the current conditions and limitations. With the help of GIS, areas for new onshore wind power are identified and the potential for repowering is estimated. Offshore wind power is addressed through a presentation of existing projects. The results show that onshore wind power can contribute with a yearly production of 8.9 TWh and that 0.5 TWh can be gained from repowering. Offshore wind power has the potential to provide 6 TWh from current projects, but its development is limited by uncertainties concerning economic and geopolitical factors linked to ongoing armed conflicts in Europe. The demand for more power in Scania can thus be met in a variety of ways with wind power, onshore or offshore. The difference lies in the order of magnitude of the contributions. Repowering also plays an important role in maintaining the existing capacity and decreasing the losses in order to secure a reliable electricity supply. The uncertainties for the Scanian wind power lies in the development of the geopolitical situation and the economic landscape. At the same time the matter of wind power placement in combination with local opposition determines the development of onshore wind power. Therefore, a careful trade-off is required between maximising wind power capacity and managing the local acceptance of disturbances. The unique conditions in Scania makes the issue of acceptance even more important because of the population density. The conclusion is that the various types of wind power face distinct challenges, but none should be prioritized above the rest. Instead, progress within all three areas is needed to meet current demands.