Europe’s New Reality of post-Pax Americana : The European Union’s Hedging Behavior Toward the United States in Year One of Trump’s Second Presidency

Sammanfattning

With Trump’s second presidency, the US’ approach to Europe shifted, marking a major change in international relations. The EU now faces a new post-Pax Americana reality, where the US is no longer a reliable security provider but a source of uncertainty. This thesis analyzes how the EU has responded to this reality, applying Koga’s (2017) framework of six types of hedging behavior. Through a qualitative case study using primary EU materials, it addresses research questions formulated with the aim of analyzing the EU’s balancing and bandwagoning behaviors within the areas of economics, military, and diplomacy toward the US during the first year of Trump’s second presidency to determine the EU’s hedging behavior. The analysis of the EU’s behavior found that it consisted of economic bandwagoning, military balancing and bandwagoning, and diplomatic bandwagoning, with some elements of economic balancing and diplomatic balancing. The type of hedging behavior exhibited was therefore determined to consist largely of conventional hedging and politico-military hedging, followed by the other four types in various degrees, reflecting a multifaceted, and potentially extensive, hedging. The EU’s response indicates that EU-US relations are undergoing unprecedented changes, potentially leading to further shifts in the Western bloc and the broader international system.