European Citizens’ Support for a Common EU Security and Defence Policy : A quantitative study of attitudes, threat perceptions and institutional trust

Sammanfattning

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the European security and defence landscape. Previous research has shown that external security threats tend to increase citizens’ support for EU security and defence cooperation, however, less is known about how institutional trust shapes citizens’ responses to security threats. This study examines whether European citizens’ perceptions of external threats increase support for a common EU security and defence policy, and whether trust in the EU shapes how citizens transform threat perception into support for a common EU security and defence policy. The study employs logistic regression models with country fixed effects and predicted probabilities, using cross-sectional data from Standard Eurobarometer 101.3 (Spring 2024), covering the 27 EU member states. The results imply that threat perception and trust in the EU operate independently with regard to support for a common EU security and defence policy. Trust in the EU neither diminishes nor amplifies the effect of threat perception, and likewise, threat perception does not diminish or amplify the effect of trust in the EU.